Although Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif denied any surgical strike, India’s envoy officially informed Islamabad about the operation.
In fact, Pakistan’s UN ambassador Maleeha Lodhi is set to meet UN chief Ban Ki-moon today to inform him about the “surgical strikes”.
With tensions high between the two countries, the Indian government has readied contingency plans.
SCENARIO 1
Terrorist strike in India’s hinterland
Pakistan is keen on spectacular 26-11 style attack to avenge the surgical strike
Attack on civilians will draw international condemnation and global isolation
Probability: High
SCENARIO 2
Terror strike on military installations in Jammu and Kashmir
High deniability for Pakistan Army. This will again highlight Kashmir problem globally
Indian forces on highest alert after surgical strike
Probability: Very high
SCENARIO 3
Pakistan Army opens heavy fire along different LoC sectors.
Easiest form of retaliation, low risk of further escalation.
LoC firing will not be seen in Pakistan as revenge for Indian strike
Probability: Extremely high
SCENARIO 4
Tit-for-tat retaliatory strike by Pakistan special forces
Pakistan Army keen on showing nation it’s ability to defend against Indian attacks
Indian forces on highest alert, covert operation can go wrong
Probability: Moderately high
SCENARIO 5
Massive influx of terrorists into Jammu and Kashmir
To exploit ongoing unrest in Kashmir valley
Terrorists can be intercepted by Indian Army
Probability: Can’t be ruled out
SCENARIO 6
Attack on Indian interests in South Asia
Pakistan has deep terror inroads in Afghanistan and Bangladesh
Seen as a low risk option by Pakistan
Probability: Very high
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